Insurance Information Institute reports mixed underwriting outlook for U.S. property/casualty insurance industry

The Insurance Information Institute announced in a press release that the U.S. property/casualty insurance industry began 2025 with a mixed underwriting outlook, according to a new report from the institute and Milliman.

According to the Insurance Information Institute’s July 2025 report produced with Milliman, the U.S. property/casualty industry shows diverging performance by line, with personal auto forecast to reach a net combined ratio (NCR) of 96.0 in 2025, up about one point from 2024 but still profitable. The report notes general liability remains a trouble spot, with the Q1 2025 loss ratio representing the second worst first quarter in more than 15 years, barely improving over last year. These findings highlight that profitability in personal auto is balancing ongoing strain in general liability, reflecting a nuanced industry outlook.

The same report from the Insurance Information Institute and Milliman details that homeowners insurance experienced its worst first-quarter loss ratio in more than 15 years, primarily due to the Los Angeles wildfires in January 2025. The Q1 performance was not only the worst first quarter in recent history but also the worst for any quarter since Q2 2011, underscoring the severe impact of catastrophe events. The press release emphasizes that weather-related and wildfire losses are increasingly driving volatility in homeowners insurance results across the country.

According to projections from the Insurance Information Institute with Milliman, the industry’s overall net written premium growth rate is expected to be 6.8% for 2025, down two percentage points from 2024 and marking the lowest growth since 2020. The report highlights that personal lines premium growth is forecast to outpace commercial lines by 1.5 percentage points, although this lead is projected to shrink by 2027. Additionally, the industry-wide NCR is forecast at 99.3 for 2025, up 2.7 points from the previous year, signaling margin pressures across multiple lines.

The Insurance Information Institute, also known as Triple-I, is a nonprofit organization focused on advancing public knowledge of insurance, as described on its official website. Triple-I offers in-depth research, data analysis, and educational resources on insurance market trends, risk management, and economic factors impacting the industry. Through collaborations with leading partners such as Milliman, Triple-I regularly publishes insights to inform policymakers, media, and the general public about developments in the insurance sector.