Study links rising home prices to support for incumbent party

Rising home prices have become a significant issue for voters in the upcoming presidential election, with candidates Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris both promising to address housing affordability. Over the past four years, national home prices have increased by 47%, as reported by the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. This rise is partly due to a housing shortage, with Freddie Mac estimating a need for at least 1.5 million additional units.

The impact of rising home prices on voter behavior has been analyzed in an academic study first reported by Realtor.com®. The study suggests that higher home values tend to increase support for the incumbent party's candidate in presidential elections. Eren Cifci, an assistant professor of finance at Austin Peay State University and lead author of the study, stated: “In our study, we found that when an incumbent party candidate runs for reelection, voters respond more strongly to increases in their home values and tend to favor the incumbent party."

With President Joe Biden withdrawing from the race and Harris securing the Democratic nomination, questions arise about whether she will benefit from this trend as much as Biden might have. Cifci noted that while Harris could see some electoral benefit in swing counties with significant home price increases, it may not be as pronounced as it would have been for Biden.

The study examined data from six presidential elections between 2000 and 2020 and highlighted that homeowners often vote based on what they believe will maximize their property values. "Our findings have important implications for the incumbent [party’s] candidate in the upcoming election," said Cifci.

Homeowners represent a powerful demographic on Election Day since nearly 66% of housing units are owner-occupied. They are also more likely to vote than renters. In closely contested swing states where local home prices could influence outcomes, these dynamics become particularly relevant.

Cifci emphasized caution against over-speculating beyond the study's scope: “There are multiple dynamics at play and several unique aspects of this election. I think it is hard to say with certainty how each factor will influence voter behavior.”