Experts say Trump’s tariffs unlikely to significantly impact new-home prices

President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs on imports are unlikely to significantly affect new-home prices, according to industry experts consulted by Realtor.com®. Despite concerns that the tariffs could raise costs and spur inflation, many in the homebuilding sector remain skeptical of their long-term impact.

Trump has suggested imposing a 60% tariff on goods from China and 10% to 20% on imports from other countries. On Monday, he nominated Howard Lutnick as Commerce Secretary, who will lead the "Tariffs and Trade agenda."

Jim Tobin, CEO of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), warned that any increase in building product costs would negatively impact housing affordability. However, Stephen Haines, president of Artisan Built Communities in Georgia, downplayed the effect of tariffs compared to issues like high interest rates and supply chain disruptions.

Gabriel Rodriguez of A Customs Brokerage noted that many builders have already adjusted their supply chains away from China due to previous tariffs. This shift could mitigate potential impacts if new tariffs are imposed during Trump's second term.

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors®, suggested that any lumber tariff might be introduced gradually to allow U.S. mills time to increase production. Meanwhile, Ralph McLaughlin, senior economist at Realtor.com®, stated that the phase of construction would determine how much builders are affected by new tariffs.

The consensus among experts is that while there may be short-term price increases for certain materials like Canadian lumber, broader impacts on home prices are expected to be minimal.