The U.S. property and casualty (P/C) insurance industry is expected to achieve underwriting profitability for the second year in a row in 2025, according to the latest Insurance Economics and Underwriting Projections: A Forward View report from Triple-I. The report, which includes data through mid-2025, indicates that the sector is projected to grow at a faster rate than the overall U.S. economy despite ongoing geopolitical and natural catastrophe risks.
Michel Léonard, Ph.D., CBE, chief economist and data scientist at Triple-I, stated that the industry has experienced stronger-than-expected underlying growth. He added that replacement costs for P/C insurance are rising more slowly than general inflation. However, Léonard cautioned about several risks ahead: “Ongoing risks, including tariffs, labor market softening and persistent inflation,” could pose challenges. He noted that while tariffs have had less impact than initially feared, their long-term effects remain uncertain.
Underwriting results for 2025 are forecasted to mirror those of 2024 but with slightly lower profitability. The gap between personal lines and commercial lines performance is narrowing. Patrick Schmid, Ph.D., Triple-I’s chief insurance officer, said: “Favorable second-quarter results for homeowners helped narrow the anticipated 2025 gap between personal and commercial lines performance created by the Los Angeles fires in the first quarter.” Schmid also mentioned that personal lines premium growth is expected to outpace commercial lines by one point in 2025; this difference is predicted to disappear by 2027.
In personal auto insurance, forecasts indicate continued profitability for 2025 with slight improvements over previous estimates. Homeowners’ insurance showed better results in the second quarter but is still expected to be unprofitable overall for the year.
Within commercial lines, general liability remains problematic. Jason B. Kurtz, FCAS, MAAA, principal and consulting actuary at Milliman said: “We see underwriting losses continuing in 2025, with the 2025 net combined ratio for GL forecast at 107.1.” He added that although some improvement may occur in subsequent years,“we estimate GL combined ratios to remain above 100.” Kurtz also observed: “Direct incurred loss ratios through mid-2025 have not improved relative to 2024’s poor result. Forecasted net written premium growth of 8.0 percent is 4.8 points above 2024 as premiums respond to recent performance.”
Workers’ compensation continues as a strong performer among major P/C lines. Preliminary results from NCCI show calendar year combined ratios between 85–93 percent for private carriers in 2025.“If this holds,” said Donna Glenn, Chief Actuary at NCCI,“it will represent 12 consecutive years of combined ratios under 100% for private carriers.” For further information on these findings,NCCI provides additional analysis in its publication “2025 in Sight, 2024 in Review: The Latest Results for Workers Compensation.”
Members interested in more detailed projections can access an expanded version of the report offering granular breakdowns across various segments such as auto liability versus physical damage within both personal and commercial auto markets,farmowners insurance forecasts,and comparisons among commercial property sub-lines.The next update will be presented during a members-only webinar scheduled for January 2026.
