Updated data from the National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI) shows that the workers compensation insurance sector achieved its 11th consecutive year of underwriting profitability in 2024. The NCCI’s recent report, which reevaluates preliminary analysis shared earlier this year, also forecasts continued gains into 2025.
According to the report, private carriers saw a combined ratio of 86.1 percent in 2024, representing a 13.9 percent underwriting gain. This was accompanied by an investment gain of 9.8 percent, resulting in an overall operating gain of 23.7 percent for the year. The NCCI noted that this marks the eighth straight year with an operating gain above 20 percent and is part of the most profitable period for workers comp insurers in at least three decades.
Net written premium declined by 3.2 percent from 2023 to 2024. However, lost-time claim frequency dropped by six percent and indemnity claim severity increased by five percent over the same period. The estimate for medical claims severity remains unchanged at a six percent increase from last year.
Looking ahead, midyear figures suggest that profitability will continue into next year, with net premium volume expected to remain stable compared to 2024 levels. Data based on National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) Quarterly Statement filings indicates direct written premium fell by 1.9 percent in the first half of 2025 versus the same period in 2024. Meanwhile, payrolls grew by about five percent during that time.
The direct loss ratio for private carriers rose slightly to fifty percent for the first half of this year—two points higher than last year’s comparable period. Historically, end-of-year loss ratios tend to be somewhat lower than those reported midyear; as a result, NCCI projects that the net combined ratio for private carriers will likely fall between eighty-five and ninety-three percent at year-end.
“If this holds, it will represent 12 consecutive years of combined ratios under 100 for private carriers,” said Donna Glenn, chief actuary at NCCI.
NCCI emphasized that its analysis will be updated as more data becomes available throughout the ratemaking season and noted several uncertainties facing the industry—including economic concerns such as potential recession risks and changing tariff or immigration policies. The organization pointed out that tariffs on items like medical equipment and pharmaceuticals could drive up costs related to workplace injury claims if inflation continues in those areas.
Additional information about these trends and final results for workers comp performance in 2025 is expected when NCCI presents its annual update in May next year.
