Colorado State University researchers announced on Apr. 9 that they expect a “somewhat below normal” Atlantic hurricane season in 2026, citing the likely development of a strong El Niño event as the main reason for their projection of six hurricanes this year.
The forecast is important because it helps communities and businesses prepare for potential weather impacts. The CSU Tropical Cyclone Risk Assessment and Mitigation Strategies (TC-RAMS) team, led by senior research scientist and Insurance Information Institute non-resident scholar Phil Klotzbach, predicts there will be 13 named storms and six hurricanes in total, with two reaching major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher). In comparison, an average Atlantic season has about 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
Klotzbach explained that El Niño events are marked by above-average ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. He said these conditions “tend to increase winds high up in the atmosphere,” which leads to greater vertical wind shear—changes in wind speed and direction—that can disrupt hurricane formation. “Too much shear tears hurricanes apart,” Klotzbach said. He added that moderate or strong El Niño events can cause significant impacts on Atlantic hurricane activity.
Although a below-normal season usually means lower odds of landfalling storms, Klotzbach warned that significant landfalls have still occurred during such years: “the odds of landfall do go down when the forecast is for below normal activity,” but “there have been significant landfalls in seasons that were somewhat below normal.” For reference, the previous year’s season saw several major hurricanes but none made U.S. landfall; however, one Category 5 storm caused extensive damage across the Caribbean.
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As preparations begin ahead of the June-to-November hurricane season window, families are encouraged to review their policies with an insurance professional—especially since flood coverage is not included under standard homeowners or renters policies but can be obtained through FEMA’s program or private insurers.
