Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science projects a somewhat below average Atlantic hurricane season for 2026, according to an April 9 forecast. The research team, led by Phil Klotzbach, Ph.D., a non-resident scholar at the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I), expects 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes between June 1 and November 30.
The forecast matters because it shapes how residents and businesses in hurricane-prone areas prepare for potential storms. A typical Atlantic season has about 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Klotzbach said, “At this point, we are anticipating a moderate/strong El Niño for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. Typically, El Niño reduces Atlantic hurricane activity via increases in vertical wind shear. Water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are near average. We consequently do not anticipate tropical Atlantic water temperatures being as strong of a hurricane-enhancing factor as they were the past few years when water temperatures were much warmer than average in the tropical Atlantic.”
Looking back at last year’s activity, CSU reported that there were also 13 named storms but five hurricanes and four major hurricanes. The most significant storm was Hurricane Melissa—a Category 5 storm that caused nearly $9 billion in damage in Jamaica and resulted in 95 fatalities across the Caribbean.
Sean Kevelighan, CEO of Triple-I, said: “While last year was a relatively quiet hurricane season for the continental U.S., all it takes is one storm to make it an active season for you and your family, so it is time to prepare as the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season’s start is less than two months away.” He added: “This is an ideal time for homeowners and business owners to review their insurance policies with an insurance professional to ensure they have the right amount and types of coverage… That also means exploring whether they need flood coverage… Additionally, homeowners can make their residences more resilient to windstorms and torrential rain by installing roof tie-downs and a good drainage system.”
Flood insurance policies are available through FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) as well as private insurers. Triple-I notes that features like wind-rated garage doors or storm shutters can help protect homes from damaging winds—and may reduce insurance premiums. About three-quarters of U.S. drivers carry comprehensive auto coverage against weather-related damage.
Triple-I recommends preparing inventories of possessions with photos or videos to ease claims processes; assembling emergency kits with essentials; and creating evacuation plans before any warnings are issued.
The probability estimates from CSU suggest lower-than-average chances this year: there is a projected probability of major hurricanes making landfall at about 32% along all U.S. coastlines (compared with a historical average of 43%), with lower probabilities on both East Coast/Florida peninsula (15%) and Gulf Coast (20%). The Caribbean faces about a one-in-three chance compared with nearly half historically.
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